Historical Background of the Initiative

Kenya has in the past had two long-term policies and several 5-Year Development Plans that have guided planning and investment: The first was Sessional Paper No. 10 of 1965: African Socialism and its Application to Kenya, and the second was Sessional Paper No.1 1986: Economic Management for Renewed Growth.

These plans attempted to confront the country’s most entrenched problems- by charting a vision of how development would tackle them.

Whereas the country grew by an average of 6 per cent over 1964-1980 and 4.1 per cent over 1980-1990, the period 1990-2002 was a period of declining per capita income with GDP growth of 1.9 per cent against a population growth of 2.9 per cent.

However, since 2003, we have made tremendous effort to get the economy back on track through the Economic Recovery Strategy (ERS) with the GDP growth rate shooting back to 5.8 per cent by 2005. But how do we consolidate and increase this in the long-term?

As a minimum, we have to transform the Socio-economic Structure from a situation where Agriculture still accounts for 23 per cent of GDP & 56 per cent of employment while manufacturing accounts for barely 9.9 per cent of GDP and less than 2 per cent of employment. Services account for the bulk of economic activity at 51.6 per cent of GDP constituted mainly by informal sector activities.

While Kenya fares well in social indicators when compared to Sub-Saharan Africa, it does poorly compared to the middle-income countries, and especially the second-generation Newly Industrialising Countries, such as Malaysia Indonesia and Thailand that 35 years ago were at the same stage of development as Kenya.

To remain relevant and competitive regionally and globally, Kenya must plan for the future. It must chart a new road map - a road map that learns from our past failures, builds on our strengths and confronts the realities of poverty, unemployment and globalization. The need for a vision is, therefore, apparent. Kenya 2030 lays the foundation for an economic revolution for the present and future leadership.

Kenya could chart a path involving radical transformation. Through maximum exploitation of science, technology and innovation, we can initiate focused interventions targeting the elimination of absolute poverty; improvement of equity and access to social services; promotion of private sector development through a regulatory framework that reduces the cost of doing business; a sound legal system that protects property rights and effectively dispenses justice; all these underpinned by accountable leadership at all levels of government.

This path constitutes the basis for the development of Kenya’s long-term vision for sustained economic and social development.

Thus the launch of Kenya Vision 2030 process is an ideal starting point to focus attention on what should be done in concrete terms to realize a prosperous Kenya. What must we do in the face of dwindling resources like water, rising unemployment and problems of urbanization?

Major gains under ERS

• Revenue Growth from about 100bn in 2001/02 to over 340 in 2005/06
• Tourism Growth by over 1.3 Million Visitors since Yr 2005.
• Primary school enrolment 7.6 million –Yr 2005.
• Health Facilities 4,557 –Year 2003 -4,912 –Yr 2005
• CDF & LATF
• Percentage of Roads in poor state fell to 32% -Yr 2005.

Present Challenges

• Unemployment Especially In Youth- Most jobs in informal
sector
• Income Redistribution – Inequality
• Rapid Urbanization – 6 % Annually
• Low Saving Ratio (16%) Compared To Need
• Composition of our Economy over time

A plan for prosperity

The vision will be anchored on three pillars namely:

• Economic Aspirations
-Sustained economic growth of 10% per annum
• Social Aspirations
-A just and cohesive society enjoying equitable social development in a clean and secure environment
• Political Aspirations
-Issue-based, people centred, results oriented and accountable democratic political system

The Kenya Vision 2030 is a long term vision and should have broad based public support and ownership.

The Vision will be developed in three phases: Phase I will be high Level Diagnostic and Benchmarking, Phase II, development of High Level Strategies and Phase III will involve development of a Master plan and Communication.

The Vision will be implemented in stages to deliver short-term, medium-term as well as long-term Economic and Social targets.

NESC recognizes that the benefits of economic growth may still not reach all the people, particularly the most disadvantaged members of the population. Consistent with the Government’s goal of fighting poverty, the vision will cover some social sector interventions that are critical in addressing the problem of poverty. The pro-poor spending proposals particularly in health and education are important in reducing the state of inequality.

Global Lessons- The Role of National Visions

As noted earlier, Kenya’s economy started well in the 1960s, but began a downward spiral that has persisted since the mid- 1970s.

It is now understood that economic and social development are exceedingly dependent on the implementation of good policies and building of strong and effective institutions.

And this should begin with a long term country vision and supporting strategies and action plans.

It is clear that a number of poor, predominantly agricultural countries have transformed into Newly Industrialized Nations in a space of a generation. Chile, Malaysia, Mauritius, Thailand and South Korea achieved spectacular economic and social progress over a very short period since the 1960s.

These countries had a number of things in common, the most significant of which are the strategic visions they formulated and implemented. These visions defined their long and short-term agendas on development priorities.

With the national visions, stakeholders were all mobilized and facilitated
to own the vision and the required reforms.

To do this, the countries developed institutional structures to implement short-term and medium term actions making it possible to reorder priorities to achieve the long term vision.

For Kenya, this lesson is particularly important and urgent because the ERS is coming to an end in 2007. There is therefore, need to get back to the drawing board and now plan for a great future of all our Children.
The Council under the direction of H.E the President has set out develop the vision for Kenya: “A globally competitive and prosperous nation with a high quality of life by 2030”